Modern Macro
Technologies
A macroeconomic research and forecasting firm serving hedge funds and institutional investors seeking a differentiated, forward-looking approach to multi-asset strategy.
Intellectual Framework: System Dynamics · Stock-Flow Consistent Analysis · Post-Keynesian / MMT-Informed · Balance-Sheet Causality · Nonlinear Feedback Modeling
What We Deliver
At the center of our process is DeepMinsky, our proprietary system dynamics–based macro platform. DeepMinsky integrates fiscal, credit, financial, and real-economy flows into a unified forecasting framework designed to model how the macroeconomic system evolves through time — not just how individual variables behave in isolation.
Our Edge
Most macro processes rely on regression, VaR-style frameworks, or machine-learning approaches that describe correlations without explaining the causal structure beneath them. We use system dynamics and stock-flow consistent, balance-sheet-based analysis to model feedback loops, nonlinear relationships, and emergent behavior — particularly valuable during regime changes, policy shifts, and balance-sheet stress.
Platform Tools
DeepMinsky
Institutional clients receive access to our scenario and forecasting environment — analyze baseline forecasts, test alternative policy paths, and simulate how shocks propagate across growth, inflation, leverage, credit, and asset markets. Run scenarios including fiscal consolidation, credit tightening, and supply-side disruptions to stress-test your macro thesis in real time.
Simulation Settings
Primary Simulation
Secondary Simulation
Visualization
AlphaTilt
Converts macro forecasts into actionable portfolio positioning. Translates expected changes in growth, inflation, fiscal impulse, credit conditions, and regime risk into tilts across asset classes and strategy sleeves — covering Treasuries, TIPS, US and international equities, small-cap value, REITs, high yield, gold, and commodities. We are also happy to work directly with institutional clients to build custom asset baskets tailored to the specific instruments and investment universe available to you.
Growth surprise is strong positive and inflation surprise is strong positive over a 6-month horizon. At 86% confidence, the portfolio applies significant portfolio repositioning.
Demand impulse is neutral — no strong directional push from fiscal or credit flows.
Governance risks are reducing maximum tilt intensity by ~17%.
No strong feasibility signals.
| Asset | Cap % | Tilt |
|---|---|---|
SGOVAll | 9.6 | Neutral -0.7% |
SCHPQ2/Q4 | 10.5 | Overweight +7.3% |
TLTQ3 | 3.6 | Underweight -10.0% |
IEFQ3 | 3.5 | Underweight -7.2% |
VTIQ1 | 17.3 | Neutral +0.5% |
IEFAQ1 | 8.1 | Neutral -0.1% |
VWOQ1/Q2 | 5.3 | Overweight +2.3% |
AVUVQ1 | 5.1 | Underweight -1.3% |
VNQQ1/Q2 | 5.2 | Overweight +2.2% |
HYGQ1 | 4.1 | Neutral -0.0% |
GLDQ2/Q4 | 15.1 | Overweight +8.1% |
DBCQ2/Q4 | 12.5 | Overweight +11.3% |
Gross: 100.0%(target ~100%)
Ongoing Research
Macro outlooks on major trends, policy direction, and market implications
Portfolio and regime updates tracking real-time shifts in the macro environment
Special reports on major exogenous events and policy shifts
Everything you need to navigate macro
One subscription. Full access to every tool, model, and research output on the platform.
AI-Powered Macro Forecasting
Access DeepMinsky — our proprietary AI research agent trained on decades of macroeconomic data. Ask it anything about markets, cycles, and regime shifts.
System Dynamics Sandbox
Run live simulations using our multi-variable economic model. Stress-test scenarios across growth, inflation, rates, and asset class responses in real time.
Macro Tilt Tool
Visualize the current macro regime and tactical positioning across asset classes based on our quantitative framework.
Outlook — Research & Insights
Subscriber-only research posts, portfolio commentary, and forward-looking macro analysis updated regularly by our team.
Direct Team Access
Schedule time with our team whenever you need it — to walk through model outputs, discuss the macro outlook, or get help structuring a custom simulation or scenario run.
Institutional-Grade Tools
Built for professional investors, allocators, and macro traders who need more than a dashboard — they need a decision-support system.
What We Track
Every variable modeled within a stock-flow consistent framework — connected through balance-sheet identities and causal feedback loops.
| Variable | Causal Role |
|---|---|
| Growth & real activity | Core output signal across sectors |
| Inflation & pricing dynamics | Nominal vs. real capacity constraints |
| Employment & labor conditions | Wage pressure and profit margin dynamics |
| Fiscal balances & government spending | The primary source of private-sector net financial assets |
| Private credit creation & the credit cycle | The endogenous engine driving expansions and contractions |
| Corporate profits & operating surplus | The Kalecki channel linking government deficits to private profitability |
| Balance-sheet feasibility (SDRI) | Our proprietary system fragility measure |
| Rates & policy transmission | Modeled as income redistribution, not mechanical stimulus |
| Multi-asset implications | Across risk assets, duration, inflation hedges, and defensive positioning |
Causal Regime Framework
We don't track correlations — we track causal structure. Each lens captures a distinct mechanism through which macro forces propagate into asset markets.
Growth / Inflation Regimes
Four quadrants mapping real output and price dynamics to asset-sensitivity profiles, driven by the interaction of fiscal and credit conditions.
Leveraging / Deleveraging Cycles
Whether private credit is expanding or contracting balance sheets — the primary driver of boom and bust, independent of Fed policy.
Credit & Fiscal Flow Dynamics
The two sources of new nominal claims: endogenous bank credit and government deficits. Their interaction — not interest rates — determines the macro trajectory.
Balance-Sheet Feasibility — SDRI
Our System Dynamic Risk Index tracks four endogenous breakage channels: cost-inflation erosion, marginal borrower degradation, fiscal asset drains, and adverse income redistribution. SDRI identifies when the credit cycle approaches exhaustion — before conventional indicators flag distress.
From Regime to Portfolio
DeepMinsky identifies macro regimes by analyzing the interaction between fiscal dynamics, credit creation, and real-economy capacity constraints. These regime signals translate directly into Macro Tilt positioning across asset classes.
| Regime State | Dominant Driver | Portfolio Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Growth ↑ / Inflation ↑ | Credit expansion + capacity pressure | Commodities, short duration, inflation hedges |
| Growth ↓ / Inflation ↓ | Fiscal drag + credit contraction | Cash, long duration, gold |
| Leveraging | Credit creation outpacing fiscal drag | HY credit, cyclical equity |
| SDRI Rising | Balance-sheet feasibility breakdown | Defensives, safe assets, reduce exposure |
Who It's For
Modern Macro Technologies is built for institutional investors who want:
- A deeper causal view of the macro cycle
- A differentiated framework beyond consensus macro and standard quant factor models
- A process that connects macro research directly to portfolio construction
- Forward-looking scenario analysis rather than backward-looking correlation analysis
“Most macro processes describe correlations without explaining the causal structure beneath them. Our framework is particularly valuable when conventional models struggle — regime changes, policy shifts, balance-sheet stress, and periods when the interaction between fiscal flows, private credit, and markets matters more than historical correlation.”
Modern Macro TechnologiesWe're Always Available
Our team is available to meet with you whenever you need — whether you want to walk through the latest macro outlook, discuss how the models are reading current conditions, or get hands-on help structuring a specific simulation or scenario run. Institutional clients can schedule time with us directly at any point during their subscription.
Get in Touch →Institutional Whitepaper
DeepMinsky — A System-Dynamic Approach to Macro Forecasting and Portfolio Strategy
A full technical overview of our theoretical foundations, model architecture, and portfolio construction methodology — covering Minsky-Keen credit dynamics, the Lévy-Kalecki profit identity, endogenous money creation, and the four balance-sheet breakage channels tracked by the SDRI.